Threshold & CV Pace Calculator

Select a race distance from 800 m to 10 km and enter a recent maximal-effort time and your age. Choose “Conservative bounds” or “Central estimate”. The tool automatically calculates threshold pace, Critical Velocity and VO₂max pace. The uncertainty range shows how estimates may vary among runners with similar performances.

These are statistical estimates from a race performance, not direct measurements of physiological thresholds. Use a recent maximal effort in representative conditions. The model supports 800 m to 10 km, but reliability varies by performance level: the documented range is approximately a 5K equivalent of 14:00–25:00. Results are not shown outside this range or when estimates violate the physiological order Threshold < CV < VO₂max. The tool does not replace laboratory or race testing.

This tool is based on John J. Davis’s open-source Threshold, Critical Velocity and VO₂max pace model. It uses nonlinear additive quantile regression on approximately 8,600 race performances from 800 m to 10 km. Central estimate uses the model’s medians. Conservative bounds uses a slower threshold estimate and a faster VO₂max pace bound, while CV stays at the median estimate. The documented reliability range is approximately a 5K equivalent of 14:00–25:00 (Riegel k = 1.06). Results are population-level statistical estimates, not laboratory measurements.

Last updated: 1 September 2026